November Elections: Becoming a Ripple or a Wave?

The Congressional Generic Vote (how many will vote for a Republican or Democrat generic candidate) often tells an interesting tale. In 2010 it forecast the Republican takeover of the U.S. House. The mainstream media has been saying that 2014 is no wave election year.

Each week Real Clear Politics averages the Congressional Generic Vote. And it's getting interesting.

On August 27, Democrats lead Republicans by 1.4%; by September 3 Democrats lead shrunk to 0.5%. By September 10, Republicans were in the lead by 1.6%. By September 17, the Republican lead had increased to 3.5%. If this trend continues, the Democrats are in trouble.

In 2010 when Republicans swept the House, the generic ballot began shifting in early July in favor of Republicans and never looked back. By this time in 2010, Republicans had a +4.5% lead over Democrats and finished that year +9.4%.

Several difference over 2010 include stronger Republican Senate candidates and not as many opportunities to pick up House seats as Republicans and conservatives in particular have won many of those that were available.

Is a wave developing or is this just going to be a ripple election? The next few weeks will tell the story.

CVF Helps Put Guinta and Garcia Over the Top in New Hampshire

New Hampshire - CVF endorsed Frank Guinta and Marilinda Garcia won decisively in yesterday's Republican primary for New Hampshire's 1st and 2nd Congressional districts.


They go on to face liberal incumbents in the general election on November 4th. Both of these incumbents have a record of support for President Obama's policies that exceeds the desire of New Hampshire's residents.

Both Guinta and Garcia have a strong record of standing up for conservative principles and their constituents, which they will continue when elected.

New Strong Conservatives Elected To U.S. House Of Representatives

Your Help Made it Possible

The new Congress will see almost three dozen new Republican Members of Congress. Of these, many are future conservative leaders. They include:

  • Tom Cotton (AR-04) is a principled conservative who graduated from Harvard College and Harvard Law School. He left his law practice to volunteer for the Army and declined a JAG offer to be an infantryman. In 2006, he was platoon leader in Iraq with the 101st Airborne. In 2008, he volunteered to go to Afghanistan. Your CVF endorsed him in the primary and helped him to win election. He will be a conservative leader and spokesman in Congress.
  • Matt Salmon (AZ-05) is once again going to be an outstanding representative for Arizona and the nation. Matt is a conservative leader who does what he says he will do. Having served in Congress before, Matt will hit the ground running.
  • Ron DeSantis (FL-06) is another solid conservative that Conservative Victory Fund endorsed in the primary. He is a graduate of Yale and a magna cum laude graduate of Harvard Law School. To help put himself through college, he worked at many jobs including sweeping floors, parking cars, working as an electrician's assistant and more. He is also a veteran of Iraq. He has served as federal prosecutor and a military prosecutor. He is a strong defender of the Constitution and wrote a book Dreams From Our Founding Fathers: First Principles in the Age of Obama.
  • Jackie Walorski (IN-02) started her career as a television reporter. As a member of the Indiana legislature, she fought for lower taxes and cutting spending. Jackie has a record of standing up for conservatism while a member of the Indiana State Legislature. She will do the same in the U.S. House.
  • Kerry Bentivolio (MI-11) was not supposed to win. Establishment Republicans first tired to defeat him with a write-in candidate. But it didn't work. He is a small government conservative who understands that centralizing power reduces liberty. He and his wife have lived on the same farm since 1982. He is an educator, a veteran who served in Vietnam and Iraq, and an educator. His favorite leader is still Ronald Reagan.
Sign up for the Newsletter: